Initial Jobless claims, produced by the Department of Labour to show those filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, saw a modest rise of 1,000 claims for the week ending December 2nd, bringing the total WoW claims to 220,000 - just undershooting economist expectations of 222,000.
In terms of analysing this data, it is rather difficult given the seasonal variations in the lead-up to Christmas which are expected to persist until early January. Nevertheless, the wider trend of claims demonstrates that they are still moderately tame which could infer that interest rates need to stay higher for longer to disparage potential demand-pull inflation deriving from wage spending.
Continuing Jobless claims, a metric released alongside IJCs to show those who are currently receiving unemployment benefits, dropped by 62,000 claims to 1.861mn, fewer than the 1.910mn economists had expected.
Again, analysing this specific release is rather difficult given the seasonal factors influencing the current labour market data, however, this week's release did put a temporary pause in Continuing claims hitting 2-year highs as was the case last week.
Going forth, it is likely the trend in Continuing claims will continue upward as the FED is likely to pause until it gets to a "restricting level". With that said, the wider implications of a slowdown in the jobs market may have long-term consequences as those in the labour market return to find their jobs were taken by AI while they were gone...
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